BullCharts Forum Homepage
Forum Home Forum Home > Market Discussion > Stock Chat
  New Posts New Posts RSS Feed: This time it’s different
  FAQ FAQ  Forum Search   Calendar   Register Register  Login Login

This time it’s different

 Post Reply Post Reply Page  12>
Author
Message
Cobra View Drop Down
Regular
Regular
Avatar

Joined: 08 Nov 2004
Location: Australia
Posts: 76
Post Options Post Options   Quote Cobra Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: This time it’s different
    Posted: 28 Mar 2005 at 9:52pm

After this weeks 'correction' in the stock markets, no doubt we will have the usual economist/analyst reassurances that it was both healthy and needed to happen. Signs are starting to emerge that the cycle has indeed peaked eg interest rates rising, commodity production increasing.
Companies in the following sectors are most prone to a downturn (recession) in the economy -
mortgage and consumer finance, home building, real estate sales, financial services, travel, entertainment, and retailing.
Some companies to short with CFD's - Banks generally, Boral, Rinker, Billabong, Coca Cola Amatil, and later in the year ASX.
BBG & CCL are particularly ripe for shorting at the moment, looking to enter after the bounce back this week.
Any others??? 

BullCharts version:3.4.1.28129
Windows XP SP2
Back to Top
davkell View Drop Down
Regular
Regular
Avatar

Joined: 01 Dec 2004
Location: Australia
Posts: 47
Post Options Post Options   Quote davkell Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 31 Mar 2005 at 11:58pm

Fundamental analysis can be such a hazy area. Personally, I believe the charts tell the true story.

Cobra: BBG & CCL are particularly ripe for shorting at the moment. I don't like commenting on particular stocks either direction, but I believe if one is willing to step up to the plate with a stock 'opinion' then some clarification to that belief should be given. This forum, and many like it are best served as an educational purporse arena, so wouldn't it be best to say why you believe these stocks are "..particularly ripe for shorting..."? Then members can review and analyse your fundamental and/or technical approach to this belief.

PS: Both stocks are trading above their Weekly rising EMA's in an uptrending market..... risky shorting arena in simple terms.

 

"Trade Your Way To Financial Freedom."
Back to Top
Cobra View Drop Down
Regular
Regular
Avatar

Joined: 08 Nov 2004
Location: Australia
Posts: 76
Post Options Post Options   Quote Cobra Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 01 Apr 2005 at 4:47pm

I guess that's what makes it interesting, and that's what makes the market work. You give 2 people the same data and you'll get 2 different opinions.
My opinions are based on my view that the market is not trending up, in fact taking out special situation stocks like BHP & RIO the 'market has been flat at best, mostly down for a number of weeks now. I just can't see a reason to go long, in fact it would be more of a risk than going short. These 2 stocks (BBG & CCL) came up in a Bullcharts scan of mine, and I've been watching them since.
The only proviso I would give is that the CCL action has been quite strong even through the downturn over the last couple of trading day's. Maybe a takeover???.
If you can see value enough to buy them, well and good.
Just thought I'd start some sort of discussion  

BullCharts version:3.4.1.28129
Windows XP SP2
Back to Top
Cobra View Drop Down
Regular
Regular
Avatar

Joined: 08 Nov 2004
Location: Australia
Posts: 76
Post Options Post Options   Quote Cobra Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 01 Apr 2005 at 4:54pm
Actually, reading my original post I think I gave my reasons. Interest rates going up - sectors most prone to rising interest rates - stocks within these sectors - stocks that have had a good run up within these sectors. Unless rising interest rates don't affect the share market anymore? Discretionary consumer spending affect the above sectors, interest rates affect consumer spending = rising interest rates  = lower sales etc etc.
BullCharts version:3.4.1.28129
Windows XP SP2
Back to Top
Cobra View Drop Down
Regular
Regular
Avatar

Joined: 08 Nov 2004
Location: Australia
Posts: 76
Post Options Post Options   Quote Cobra Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 01 Apr 2005 at 5:01pm
One more point. If this is an resources led bull market, bare in mind that Brazils (I think from memory) increase in copper production over the next 2 years equals the total current output of BHP Billiton. A typical cycle produces shortages then gluts, low interest rates then rising interest rates. Simple economics. It's not going to last forever, and already may have peaked.
BullCharts version:3.4.1.28129
Windows XP SP2
Back to Top
davkell View Drop Down
Regular
Regular
Avatar

Joined: 01 Dec 2004
Location: Australia
Posts: 47
Post Options Post Options   Quote davkell Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Apr 2005 at 7:53pm

Well, you seem to know you stuff 'fundamentally' it seems. But most of what you said made very little sense to me. I believe that all that info is contained within the price data, and is 'visible' before the actual fundamental news is released.

Everyone to their own of course.

"Trade Your Way To Financial Freedom."
Back to Top
Cobra View Drop Down
Regular
Regular
Avatar

Joined: 08 Nov 2004
Location: Australia
Posts: 76
Post Options Post Options   Quote Cobra Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Apr 2005 at 8:57pm
I'm not sure what you're commenting on?. The topic is stock chat, so I was attempting to chat about stocks, with the idea that other people could comment and offer other stock ideas for comment, hopefully from a Bullcharts perspective. At least we're 'chatting'. Where do you see interest rates heading and does it/will it affect your investment in shares?.
BullCharts version:3.4.1.28129
Windows XP SP2
Back to Top
davkell View Drop Down
Regular
Regular
Avatar

Joined: 01 Dec 2004
Location: Australia
Posts: 47
Post Options Post Options   Quote davkell Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Apr 2005 at 9:13pm

It was my way of saying, "I have zero knowledge on the fundamental side of things!", lol.

I guess it shows that many people make money (and lose money) through very different approaches, so no one way is the right way I guess.

Interest rates: I'm lucky (or perhaps unlucky, depends how you view it!) because I don't have a mortgage yet. No DINK here, single income family two kids, does that explain it, haha. I heard a commentary that the Reserve has on most occasions always raised interest rates twice in a row. So I believe the market is tipping another quarter of a percent this week. Where they go from there, I can't say.

 

"Trade Your Way To Financial Freedom."
Back to Top
chart rider View Drop Down
Regular
Regular
Avatar

Joined: 25 Sep 2004
Location: Australia
Posts: 96
Post Options Post Options   Quote chart rider Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 Apr 2005 at 8:19pm

Cobra

There is no doubt that overall market direction is based upon fundamentals, for there exists no other force that can have an affect - including day to day events that investors perceive as affecting fundamental economics in either a positive or negative sense.

The current market price(s) though are set by the perception of future expectations and as such any knowledge regarding future commodity production levels etc would already be factored into the current market.

In my opinion the analysis of fundamentals is just far too complicated to apply to individual stocks, with almost infinite variables and information that at any point in time is already general knowledge in the investment circles.  This makes decisions based upon fundamentals, in my opinion, just too difficult and too self contradictory to be of use for daily buy/sell decisions.

Apart from looking at fundamentals for the big picture (eg. is the uptrending market generally in sync with fundamentals?), I see the only objective approach for day to day decisions as being technical analysis - and not necessarily using hundreds of indicators, but just one or two - while always being alert to the general market conditions.

Technical analysis also allows the reading of price activity under the effect of crowd emotions, which pure fundamental analysis does not.  I think a ballance of the two approaches is the key.

Chart Rider

Back to Top
Cobra View Drop Down
Regular
Regular
Avatar

Joined: 08 Nov 2004
Location: Australia
Posts: 76
Post Options Post Options   Quote Cobra Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Apr 2005 at 11:01pm

I'm not sure I'm actually advocating fundamentals over technicals?. I just made an observation about the economy in general, and a couple of companies that may be influenced negatively.
Both have come off since the first post, BBG by about 4% and CCL about 4.4%. BBG appears to have further to go. I'm basing this firstly on Bullcharts technicals then, on a broader timespan, on fundamentals of a slowing economy.

So, based on your post, what is technical analysis telling you now?.
Are you 'in' or 'out' of the market?.
Buying or selling?.
Any stock picks?.



Edited by Cobra
BullCharts version:3.4.1.28129
Windows XP SP2
Back to Top
 Post Reply Post Reply Page  12>

Forum Jump Forum Permissions View Drop Down

Bulletin Board Software by Web Wiz Forums® version 9.69
Copyright ©2001-2010 Web Wiz